James Webb Isključio Udаr Asteroida 2024 YR4 U Mesec — Šta Znamo Do Sada

Naučnici su konačno isključili mogućnost da asteroid 2024 YR4 pogodi Mesec tokom svog bliskog prolaza 22. decembra 2032. godine. Ranije procene su ukazivale na malu, ali zabrinjavajuću verovatnoću udara, zbog čega je predmet privukao pažnju NASA, istraživača i javnosti.

Šta je novo? Posmatranja svemirskog teleskopa James Webb, zajedno sa daljim merenjima i analizama, omogućila su preciznije određivanje orbite asteroida. Na osnovu tih podataka, naučnici sada smatraju da će 2024 YR4 proći na oko 13.200 milja (≈21.200 km) od površine Meseca — dovoljno blizu da je to „blizak susret“, ali ne i udar.

Zašto je ovo bilo važno

Asteroid 2024 YR4, otkriven 27. decembra 2024. godine i opisan kao objekt veličine od približno 300 stopa (~91 m, odnosno otprilike zgrade od 15 spratova), bio je neko vreme na Sentry listi rizika — sistemu koji prati mogućnost udara objekata u Zemlju. U jednom trenutku njegova verovatnoća udara u Zemlju kratko je porasla do oko 3,1%.

Kako su se procene menjale

Tokom februara i marta 2025. preciznija posmatranja su smanjila verovatnoću udara u Zemlju praktično na nulu. Ipak, početna Webbova merenja su privremeno povećala procenu rizika za mogući udar u Mesec (sa ~1,7% na oko 3,8%, a kasnije do ~4,3% prema nekim privremenim izračunima). Najnoviji podaci i analize sada isključuju udar u lunarnu površinu: razlika je u preciznosti određivanja tačne pozicije asteroida u momentu bliskog prilaza 22. decembra 2032.

Koliko je to blizu? Udaljenost od površine Meseca od oko 13.200 milja (~21.200 km) jeste mala u kosmičkim razmerama — za poređenje, prosečna udaljenost Meseca od Zemlje iznosi oko 239.000 milja (~384.400 km). Čak i da je došlo do udara, NASA navodi da takav događaj ne bi značajno promenio orbitu Meseca oko Zemlje.

Ko stoji iza analiza

Posmatranja su sproveli timovi koji uključuju naučnike iz Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) u Laurelu (Maryland) i podatke je obrađivao NASA-in Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) pri Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Važno je napomenuti da rezultati još nisu objavljeni u recenziranom naučnom radu, ali su objavljeni i komentarisani od strane nadležnih agencija.

Šta dalje očekivati

Pratnje i dodatna posmatranja će se nastaviti kako bi se dodatno smanjile nesigurnosti u orbiti i tačno predvideo položaj objekta 2032. godine. Za sada, poruka naučnika je umirujuća: Mesec je siguran od udara asteroida 2024 YR4 tokom najavljenog bliskog prilaza.

Napomena: Informacije u ovom tekstu zasnovane su na izveštaju USA TODAY i objavama NASA-e iz marta i maja 2025. godine. Najnovija posmatranja teleskopa James Webb su bila ključna za preciznije određivanje trajektorije.

Autor originalnog izveštaja: Eric Lagatta (USA TODAY). Kontakt: elagatta@usatodayco.com

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This image from the James Webb Space Telescope shows asteroid 2024 YR4. It’s exceedingly faint right now, reflecting about as much light as an almond at the distance of the moon. Without Webb, scientists would have needed to wait until 2028, during the asteroid’s next passage through the inner solar system, before refining their knowledge of its trajectory.