Izbori u Indiji Produbljuju Hindu‑Muslimanski Raskol — Kongres Privlači Muslimanske Birače

Rezultati nedavnih izbora u četiri indijske savezne države i jednoj federalnoj teritoriji pokazuju rastuću polarizaciju duž verskih linija: muslimanski birači su se u većoj meri konsolidovali oko opozicionog Kongresa, dok su hinduski birači masovno podržali premijera Narendre Modija i njegovu partiju BJP.

Ključni nalazi

Analitičari i politički komentatori ocenjuju da ovi izborni rezultati potvrđuju zaoštravanje verske polarizacije u formalno sekularnoj Indiji i produbljivanje ideološkog jaza između dve dominantne stranke.

Modi je 2014. došao na vlast uz otvoreno pro‑hindu platformu, a BJP često je opisan kao sledioci ideje Hindutve. Takav pritisak na biračko telo pogoduje BJP‑u s obzirom na demografiju: hindusi čine skoro 80% od 1,42 milijarde stanovnika, dok muslimani čine oko 14%.

Detalji po državama

Najjasniji primer konsolidacije muslimanskog glasa zabeležen je u Assamu: od 19 novoizabranih poslanika Kongresa, 18 su muslimani (porast u odnosu na prethodni saziv), pri čemu je Kongres kandidovao 20 muslimana i oko 80 nemuslimanskih kandidata za 126-članu skupštinu. U isto vreme, regionalna partija AIUDF, koja je ranije privlačila veliki deo muslimanskih glasova, pala je sa 16 na samo 2 mandate.

U Zapadnoj Bengaliji BJP je po prvi put osvojio vlast sa 207 mandata u 294‑članom zakonodavnom telu. U toj državi Kongres je osvojio samo dva mandata, a oba su pripala muslimanskim kandidatima. U oba stanja — Assam i Bengalija — BJP nije istakao muslimanske kandidate.

"To je bila pobeda za Hindutvu," izjavio je Suvendu Adhikari, jedan od lidera BJP u Bengalu.

Političke posledice i reakcije

Politički analitičari govore o fenomenu "obrnute polarizacije": kako se muslimanski birači konsoliduju oko sekularnih i opozicionih snaga (pre svega Kongresa), dominantni hindu birači mogu se još snažnije okupiti oko BJP‑a. Kolumnistkinja Radhika Ramaseshan upozorava da bi dugoročno takav trend mogao promeniti percepciju same ideje indijskog sekularizma.

"Uspon BJP‑a doveo je do konsolidacije muslimanskih birača oko takozvanih sekularnih partija," rekao je Rasheed Kidwai iz Observer Research Foundation.

Vođa AIUDF‑a Badruddin Ajmal ocenjuje da Kongres koristi osećaj nesigurnosti koji neki muslimanski birači osećaju pod vladavinom BJP‑a: "Argument je da samo partija dovoljno jaka da se suprotstavi BJP‑u u centru može na kraju rešiti ove brige. To nije tačno, ali birači veruju u to jer su uplašeni."

"Sramota me je da o ovome govorim u 21. veku," rekao je portparol Kongresa Pawan Khera i istakao da njegova stranka ima široku bazu podrške i da stoji uz slabe i potlačene bez obzira na veru i kastu.

Modi je negirao da koristi religiju kao sredstvo u kampanji: "Dan kada počnem da govorim o hindu‑muslim (u politici) biće dan kada ću izgubiti sposobnost da vodim javni život," rekao je prilikom podnošenja kandidature.

Šta dalje?

Analitičari upozoravaju da će lokalna dinamika i dalje odlučivati o rastu ili padu ovih trendova, ali izbori su jasno pokazali da su religijski faktori sve značajniji u biračkom ponašanju. Pitanje da li će se polarizacija dodatno učvrstiti ostaje centralno za buduće nacionalne izbore i stabilnost političkog sistema Indije.

(Izveštavali: Krishna N. Das, New Delhi; Tora Agarwala, Guwahati)

Members of security forces stop vehicles as they stand guard along a road leading to the site where an aide of Suvendu Adhikari, a leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal state, was shot dead days after the BJP secured a majority in the state assembly elections, in North 24 Parganas, on the outskirts of Kolkata, India, May 7, 2026. REUTERS/Sahiba Chawdhary

Members of security forces stop a delivery personnel as they stand guard along a road leading to the site where an aide of Suvendu Adhikari, a leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal state, was shot dead days after the BJP secured a majority in the state assembly elections, in North 24 Parganas, on the outskirts of Kolkata, India, May 7, 2026. REUTERS/Sahiba Chawdhary

Members of security forces stop vehicles as they stand guard along a road leading to the site where an aide of Suvendu Adhikari, a leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal state, was shot dead days after the BJP secured a majority in the state assembly elections, in North 24 Parganas, on the outskirts of Kolkata, India, May 7, 2026. REUTERS/Sahiba Chawdhary

Members of security forces stand guard along a road leading to the site where an aide of Suvendu Adhikari, a leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal state, was shot dead days after the BJP secured a majority in the state assembly elections, in North 24 Parganas, on the outskirts of Kolkata, India, May 7, 2026. REUTERS/Sahiba Chawdhary

Members of security forces stop vehicles as they stand guard along a road leading to the site where an aide of Suvendu Adhikari, a leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal state, was shot dead days after the BJP secured a majority in the state assembly elections, in North 24 Parganas, on the outskirts of Kolkata, India, May 7, 2026. REUTERS/Sahiba Chawdhary

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