El Niño u Tihom okeanu jača do neviđenih nivoa i ruši rekorde temperature površine mora, što pojačava zabrinutost naučnika. Stručnjaci upozoravaju da kombinacija snažnog El Niño i povišenih temperatura usled klimatskih promena značajno povećava šanse da 2026. ili 2027. postanu najtoplije godine u zabeleženoj istoriji. Prognozirani su regionalni efekti — od suša i požara do obilnih padavina i promena u sezoni uragana — uz potencijalno velike ekonomske štete.
'Zapanjujući' El Niño Ruši Rekorde — Zašto Naučnike Zabrinjava i Šta To Znači Za Svet
A sea surface temperature graphic by Climate Central, using NOAA data displayed by the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer, shows just how warm water temperatures have been this summer.
El Niño, najuticajniji klimatski obrazac na planeti, jača u Tihom okeanu i ruši rekorde temperature površinskih voda. Naučnici upozoravaju da kombinacija vrlo snažnog El Niño događaja i već povišenih temperatura usled klimatskih promena može imati dalekosežne posledice za vremenske obrasce, poljoprivredu, infrastrukturu i ekonomiju širom sveta.
Šta se trenutno dešava
Podaci Berkeley Earth i Nacionalne uprave za okeane i atmosferu (NOAA) pokazuju da su temperature površine mora u delu ekvatorijalnog Tihog okeana dostigle nivoe koji obično označavaju vrlo snažan El Niño. Istraživači Zeke Hausfather i Robert Rohde navode da je zagrevanje u tom regionu razvijalo brže nego tokom velikog El Niño događaja 1997–1998, a neki modeli prognoziraju da bi aktuelni događaj mogao premašiti rekord iz 2015–2016.
Kako El Niño utiče na globalne temperature
El Niño obično podiže globalnu temperaturu za približno 0,54°F (oko 0,3°C) na kratke periode. Sada, kada su osnovne temperature već povišene zbog ljudskog uticaja na klimu, dodatni skok usled snažnog El Niño znači da su izgledi za rekorde globalne prosečne temperature — posebno za 2026. i 2027. godinu — znatno povećani, navode stručnjaci poput Daniela Swaina.
Regionalni efekti i rizici
El Niño utiče na vremenske i hidrološke cikluse širom sveta, pa se očekuju:
- Suše u delovima Srednje Amerike i na Karibima, kao i u nekim delovima Severne i Južne Amerike.
- Sušniji uslovi u delovima Indonezije i jugoistočne Azije tokom monsunske sezone.
- Vlažnije uslove u Istočnoj Africi u periodu od septembra do decembra.
- Povećanu verovatnoću intenzivnijih zimskih oluja u Kaliforniji, unutrašnjem jugozapadu SAD i južnom pojasu država zbog promena u jet streamu.
- Pojačanu aktivnost uragana u istočnom Pacifiku i istovremeno smanjenje uraganske aktivnosti u Atlantiku.
Ekonomske i društvene posledice
Zbog uticaja na padavine, poljoprivredu, ribarstvo i šumske požare, El Niño može izazvati velike ekonomske gubitke. Istraživanja ukazuju da bi aktuelni događaj mogao postati jedan od najskupljih El Niño događaja u zabeleženoj istoriji, sa potencijalom za štete vredne milijarde ili čak bilione dolara u zavisnosti od regiona i sektora.
Neizvesnosti i šta možemo očekivati
Iako veliki broj modela pokazuje konsenzus o vrlo snažnom događaju, El Niño je inerentno komplikovan i zavisi od detalja kao što su tačna lokacija maksimalnog zagrevanja i interakcija sa atmosferskim obrascima (pasaci, gornji vazdušni tokovi). Michael Mann i drugi naučnici upozoravaju da postoji raspon scenarija i da precizne lokalne posledice još uvek nisu potpuno predvidive.
Ključna poruka: Kombinacija izuzetno toplih površinskih voda u ekvatorijalnom Pacifiku i već povišenih globalnih temperatura zbog klimatskih promena povećava rizik od ekstremnih vremenskih događaja i rekorda toplote u narednih 12–24 meseca.
Autori izvorne analize i ekspertize: Analize su zasnovane na radovima i prognozama stručnjaka i institucija kao što su Berkeley Earth (Zeke Hausfather, Robert Rohde), NOAA, Climate Central, Daniel Swain, Michael Mann i Justin Mankin.
Ostanite informisani o lokalnim i regionalnim upozorenjima nadležnih meteoroloških službi jer će detaljne posledice za pojedina područja zavisiti od razvoja događaja tokom jeseni i zime.
A man carries a small chicken, perched on a shoe, from his flooded home in the village of Gomera, Escuintla, south of Guatemala's capital, on Sept. 30, 1997. Two rivers in the Escuintla area overflowed after heavy rain during El Niño, flooding over 800 homes. Another El Niño is strengthening in the Central and Eastern Pacific in June 2026, and likely to affect weather patterns around the globe in the months ahead. See impacts from previous events in the U.S. and worldwide in the following photos.(Reuters)
A Peruvian soldier evacuates a child victim of flooding in Piura, north of Lima, Peru, on Jan. 10, 1997, during flooding influenced by El Niño.(Silvia Izquierdo, Reuters)
Lorenzo Macias and Darren Davis with the Stanislaus Hot Shots from California start a back fire along Clyde Morris Boulevard in Daytona Beach on July 1, 1998 to stop a large fire burning toward the city. Research later linked the 1998 firestorms in Florida to the exceptional El Niño that suddenly halted and transitioned to a La Niña.(David Tucker, Daytona Beach News-Journal)
A woman uses a cycle-cart to cross a rain-flooded street in the outskirts of Santiago, June 23, 1997. At least 18 people died and more than 50,000 people nationwide were left homeless after heavy rain, a side effect of El Nino.(Reuters)
A cul-de-sac of homes is partially submerged in flood waters as Clear Lake continues to rise on February 24, 1998. El Niño influenced rains caused the lake to rise to its highest levels since 1914.(Sean Ramsey)
Construction crews try to repair a road destroyed by flooding due to El Niño on May 5, 1998. Authorities reported the country had suffered $1.925 million in damage due to the storms.(Reuters)
D.A. Lewis checks his rain gauge after irrigating his 40 acres of peanuts in Marion County, Florida on June 23, 1998. "Yup, no rain," Lewis said sarcastically. Lewis only planted half of what he normally plants because of the dry conditions. "I don't call this El Nino, I call it Hell Nino."(Doug Engle, Star-Banner)
Firefighters direct a water cannon at the head of a wildfire trying to slow its approach toward the evacuated Cedar Highlands subdivision in Daytona Beach, Florida, on the morning of July 2, 1998.(Sam Cranston, Daytona Beach News-Journal)
The influence of El Niño was blamed for a drought in Indonesia's East Java province that left this boat stranded on a dry, cracked riverbed of the Dawuhan Dam during drought season in Madiun on Oct. 5, 2015.(Antara Foto, Reuters)
Sea surface temperature departure is seen in an undated NOAA image released Oct. 9, 2015 as El Niño strengthens.(Reuters / NOAA)
Female students attend a mass prayer session to ask for rain, in Kudus, Indonesia's Central Java province on Oct. 17, 2015.(Yusuf Nugroho, Antara Foto, Reuters)
A driver climbs out of a window of his car after driving onto a flooded road in Van Nuys, California, Jan. 5, 2016. An El Nino-strengthened storm brought widespread rain to drought-stricken California, triggering flooding that clogged roadways, and authorities warned residents about possible mud slides.(Gene Blevins, Reuters)
A home with a fence destroyed by a mudslide is seen on Jan. 6, 2016, after an El Nino-strengthened storm brought rain to Pasadena, California.(Lucy Nicholson, Reuters)
Fisherman Gabriel Barreto stands on the shore of the Magdalena river, the longest and most important river in Colombia, in the city of Honda, Jan. 14, 2016.(John Vizcaino, Reuters)
Uninhabitable apartments, in danger of collapsing into the Pacific Ocean, line Esplanade Ave. in Pacifica, California on Jan. 26, 2016.(Noah Berger, Reuters)
Uninhabitable apartments, in danger of collapsing into the Pacific Ocean, line Esplanade Ave. in Pacifica, California on Jan. 26, 2016.(Noah Berger, Reuters)
A displaced woman and her children wait for assistance at Habaas town of Awdal region, Somaliland on April 9, 2016. Across the Horn of Africa, millions were hit by the severe El Nino-related drought.(Reuters / Feisal Omar)
Water rushes through the Ortona Locks on the Caloosahatchee River on Monday, Feb. 26, 2024, as the Army Corp of Engineers releases water from Florida's Lake Okeechobee during continued El Nino conditions.(Andrew West/The News-Press, USA TODAY Network)
A view of cracked ground at a dam in Mudzi, Zimbabwe on July 2, 2024, during an El Nino-influenced drought, resulting in malnutrition among children under the age of five, pregnant and lactating women, and adolescents.(Philimon Bulawayo, REUTERS)
A woman fetches drinking water from an unprotected well on July 2, 2024 in Kotwa, in the Mudzi district of Zimbabwe during an El Nino-influenced drought.(Philimon Bulawayo, REUTERS)
Sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region and in other locations of the Pacific Ocean are several degrees warmer than normal, as illustrated in this anomalies map from Climate Central, based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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