Mir Može Biti Veća Pretnja Za Iransku Teokraciju Nego Rat

Moguće je da će mir između SAD i Irana predstavljati veću opasnost za iransku teokraciju nego sam otvoreni sukob. Kad nestane spoljnog "izgovora", vraćaju se unutrašnji režimski problemi — ekonomska kriza, politička represija i visoka očekivanja stanovništva.

Decembarski ustanak i rat: pozadina

Pre sukoba koji je eskalirao 28. februara, Iran se već suočavao sa masovnim protestima u decembru — najvažnijim izazovom vlasti u godinama. Tokom produbljavanja protesta vlast je primenila skoro totalno zatvaranje interneta i snažnu represiju nad demonstrantima. Prema izveštajima, u tim obračunima je stradalo više Iranaca nego tokom narednog konvencionalnog sukoba sa SAD i Izraelom.

Region pod udarom

Tokom eskalacije, sukob je pogodio čitav region. Neki zapaženiji incidenti uključuju:

Bahrein: Eksplozije u Manami i dim iznad grada (28. feb 2026).

Sirija: Ostaci raketa u južnoj pokrajini Quneitra; civili pogođeni.

Irak: Eksplozije u blizini aerodroma Erbil i udari u provinciji Babil (1. mart).

Katar: Izveštaji o dimu u Dohi i simbolične molitve projicirane na javne površine (1. mart).

Saudijska Arabija: Prekid letova i presretanje projektila u blizini Rijada; požari u rafinerijama nakon dron-napada.

Ujedinjeni Arapski Emirati: Napadi na lučke i industrijske objekte, štete na tankerskim pošiljkama kroz Zaliv.

Oman, Kuvajt, Turska, Liban: Različiti udari, evakuacije i civilne posledice koje su dodatno destabilizovale regionalnu bezbednost.

Zašto je mir problematičan za režim

Tokom gotovo četiri meseca sukoba, režim je koristio rat kao objašnjenje za porast cena, pad valute, nestašice i ograničenja sloboda (naročito interneta). Rat je bio praktičan izgovor koji je ublažavao pritisak na vlast — opravdavajući represivne mere i ekonomske žrtve kao nužnost.

Ako se sukob smiri i mirovni sporazum stupi na snagu, nestaje ključni alibi. Bez rata:

• Opravdanje za produženu represiju postaje slabije;
• Očekivanja javnosti u pogledu ekonomskog oporavka i povratka osnovnih usluga će rasti;
• Režim će morati da pokaže rezultate — a pre sukoba ih nije imao.

Mogućnosti i rizici sporazuma

Sporazum iz juna navodno predviđa finansijske olakšice, ublažavanje sankcija i odmrzavanje sredstava koja bi mogla pružiti kratkoročni manevarski prostor vlastima u Teheranu. Međutim:

• Nije sigurno da li će sredstva zaista stići do običnih građana;
• Postoje rizici da će režim iskoristiti novac za konsolidaciju bez stvarnih reformi;
• Sa druge strane, neuspeh isporuke benefita može dodatno podstaći proteste i erodirati legitimitet vlasti.

Zaključak

Preživljavanje režima u kratkom roku ne znači njegovu snagu na duže staze. Mir uklanja spoljašnji izgovor, ali vraća u prvi plan probleme koje teokratija nije rešila — ekonomske teškoće, političku represiju i narasla očekivanja građana. Bez stvarnih promena, postoji malo osnova da verujemo da će režim moći da zadovolji zahteve naroda i povrati legitimitet.

Autor: J.T. Young

SyriaSyrian children stand on the wreckage of an Iranian rocket that was reportedly intercepted by Israeli forces in the southern countryside of Quneitra, near the Golan Heights, close to the town of Ghadir al-Bustan.(BAKR ALKASEM, AFP via Getty Images)

IraqA plume of smoke rises near Erbil International Airport in Erbil on March 1, 2026. Loud explosions were heard early on March 1 near Erbil airport, which hosts US-led coalition troops in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region, an AFP journalist said.(SHVAN HARKI, AFP via Getty Images)

IraqMembers and officers from the Iraqi Interior Ministry's Explosives Directorate inspect the fuel tank of a rocket that landed in a rural village in the Siyahi area near the city of Hilla in the central Babil province on March 1, 2026. Iraq, which has recently regained a sense of stability but has long been a proxy battleground between the U.S. and Iran, warned that it did not want to be dragged into the war that started on Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.(KARRAR JABBAR, AFP via Getty Images)

QatarA prayer appealing to God for protection is projected on the dome of al-Hazm shopping mall in Doha on March 1, 2026.(KARIM JAAFAR, AFP via Getty Images)

QatarMotorists drive past a plume of smoke rising from a reported Iranian strike in the industrial district of Doha on March 1, 2026.(MAHMUD HAMS, AFP via Getty Images)

BahrainA building that was damaged by an Iranian drone attack, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Manama, Bahrain, March 1, 2026.(Hamad I Mohammed, REUTERS)

Saudi ArabiaThe empty terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh is pictured on March 1, 2026. Global airlines cancelled flights across the Middle East after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, plunging the region into a new conflict. In Saudi Arabia, Iranian missiles targeting Riyadh's international airport and the Prince Sultan Airbase, which houses U.S. military personnel, were intercepted, a Gulf source briefed on the matter told AFP.(FAYEZ NURELDINE, AFP via Getty Images)

United Arab EmiratesA food delivery bike drive close to a plume of smoke rising from the Zayed Port following a reported Iranian strike in Abu Dhabi on March 1, 2026.(RYAN LIM, AFP via Getty Images)

United Arab EmiratesAn oil tanker is pictured offshore in Dubai on March 1, 2026. Attacks have damaged tankers, and many ship owners, oil majors and trading houses suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via theStrait of Hormuz.(FADEL SENNA, AFP via Getty Images)

OmanSmoke billows from an oil tanker under U.S. sanctions, that was hit off Oman's Musandam peninsula, in this screen grab from a video obtained by Reuters on March 1, 2026.(UGC VIDEO, via REUTERS)

KuwaitSmoke rises from a reported Iranian strike in the area where the U.S. Embassy is located in Kuwait City on March 2, 2026. Black smoke was seen rising from the U.S. embassy in Kuwait City on March 2 after the latest volley of Iranian strikes, an AFP correspondent saw,(AFP via Getty Images)

Saudi ArabiaA satellite image shows efforts to control a fire as smoke rises in the Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia after a drone attack, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia March 2, 2026.(Vantor, via REUTERS)

TurkeyPeople make their way after crossing from Iran into Turkey at the Kapikoy Border Gate in eastern Van province,Turkey, March 2, 2026.(Dilara Senkaya, REUTERS)

United Arab EmiratesDelivery persons ride motorcycles along a road as a tall smoke plume billows following an explosion in the Fujairah industrial zone on March 3, 2026.(FADEL SENNA, AFP via Getty Images)

United Arab EmiratesPieces of missiles and drones recovered after Iran's strikes are displayed during a press briefing by the UAE government held in Abu Dhabi on March 3, 2026. Iran stepped up its attacks on economic targets and US missions across the Middle East on March 3, as the US president warned it was "too late" for the Islamic republic to seek talks to escape the war. As drones and missiles crashed into oil facilities and U.S. embassies in the Gulf, Washington's ally Israel bombarded targets in Iran and pushed troops deeper into Lebanon to battle the Tehran-backed militia Hezbollah.(RYAN LIM, AFP via Getty Images)

LebanonSmoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut on March 3, 2026. The Israeli military issued new evacuation orders for dozens of locations in Lebanon on March 3, including warning residents in two southern Beirut neighbourhoods to stay away from several buildings ahead of an imminent operation.(AFP via Getty Images)

LebanonEmergency personnel work at the site of an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, Lebanon, March 3, 2026.(REUTERS)

LebanonRescuers gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the Jamaa Islamiya offices in the southern Lebanese coastal city of Sidon on March 3, 2026.(MAHMOUD ZAYYAT, AFP via Getty Images)

United Arab EmiratesTankers are seen off the coast of the Fujairah, as Iran vows to close the Strait of Hormuz, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 3, 2026.(Amr Alfiky, REUTERS)

A woman walks on a street in Tehran, Iran, on June 14, 2026.