Smrtonosni talas vrućine za Dan nezavisnosti — naučnici vide „otisak" klimatskih promena

Početak jula 2026. doneo je istorijske vremenske ekstreme četvrtu godinu zaredom, a naučnici ističu da talas vrućine koji je pogodio istočni deo SAD nosi jasan „otisak" antropogenih klimatskih promena.

Šta se dogodilo

Između 1. i 4. jula 2026. prijavljeno je najmanje 44 smrti povezanih s ekstremnom toplotom, dok će konačna procena žrtava i povreda biti poznata tek nakon nedelja ili meseci istraga. Tokom četvorodnevnog perioda više od 1.300 temperaturnih rekorda je izjednačeno ili oboreno u 40 saveznih država i teritorija.

Gde je najteže pogođeno

Najteže posledice zabeležene su na istoku SAD: New Jersey je do 7. jula prijavio 29 smrtnih slučajeva povezanih s vrućinom; Cook County (Ilinois) naveo je toplotu kao faktor u četiri smrti; New York je prijavio tri, a Filadelfija sedam smrtnih slučajeva od 1. jula. Pojedinačne tragedije, poput smrti 83-godišnje Irene Van Egmond u Boltonu (Mississippi), pokazuju kako i naizgled „umerene" dnevne temperature uz visok indeks vlažnosti mogu biti fatalne.

Naučni uvidi

Analize Climate Centrala pokazuju da je od 29. juna do 5. jula oko 201 milion Amerikanaca iskusilo najmanje jedan dan kada su klimatske promene učinile takve temperature barem tri puta verovatnijim. Shel Winkley (Climate Central) je ocenio da su temperature 3. jula imale „veoma jak otisak klimatskih promena", pogađajući oko 136 miliona ljudi". World Weather Attribution (međunarodni naučni konzorcijum) izvestio je da bi ovaj julksi talas bio "praktčno nemoguć" bez uticaja klimatskih promena.

Zašto su tople noći opasne

Posebna zabrinutost odnosi se na visoke noćne temperature: istraživači sa Duke University ukazuju da produžene noći bez olakšanja umanjuju mogućnost oporavka ljudskog tela i sistema hlađenja, te time povećavaju rizik za najranjivije grupe. Climate Central navodi da su letnje noći u 231 američkom gradu u proseku ugrejale za 3,1°C od 1971. godine.

Rekordi i meteorološki uzroci

Mnogi rekordi su posledica anticiklonskog sistema visokog pritiska koji je dovukao toplotu i vlagu iz Zaliva Meksika (pomenutog u izveštaju i kao "Gulf of America"). Površinske temperature mora bile su blizu rekorda iz prethodnih leta (2023–2025). Među preliminarnim zapažanjima: Virginia (150 rekorda), Pennsylvania (127), New York (102) i North Carolina (101). Atlantic City je 4. jula prijavio preliminarni maksimum od 106°F, izjednačivši lokalni rekord.

Konkretnosti i lokalni uticaji

Filadelfija je 4. jula zabeležila prvi put u istoriji da su tri uzastopna dana premašila 101°F. Trenutni 30-godišnji prosek za 4. jul u tom gradu iznosi oko 78.2°F, što je gotovo 3°C više nego decenijama ranije, a tri od 11 najtoplijih dana u istoriji grada registrovana su u poslednjih 16 godina.

Šta ovo znači

Znanstveni konsenzus i podatci ukazuju da su ovakvi talasi vrućine sve verovatniji i intenzivniji zbog zadržanih emisija stakleničkih gasova. Posebna pažnja potrebna je za ranjive grupe i infrastrukturne prilagodbe, kao što su bolji pristup rashladnim centrima i planovi za pregrejavanje.

Autor: Dinah Voyles Pulver (prevod i prilog za srpsko tržište). Originalni tekst objavljen u USA TODAY: "Was that climate change? Scientists ponder a deadly July 4 weekend."

A person is helped by first responders as people cope withextreme heatalong the National Mall in Washington, DC, on July 3, 2026, as high temperatures grip the US capital ahead of Independence Day celebrations.The Great American State Fair in Washington, DC,temporarily closed around 1 p.m. due to temps breaking 100.(Amid Farahi, AFP via Getty Images)

A person records the extreme heat at the Great American State Fair as temperatures reach above 100 degrees Fahrenheit on the National Mall on July 03, 2026 in Washington, DC.(Alexi J. Rosenfeld, Getty Images)

Heatwaves shimmer as the Antonov AN-124, the world's largest operating cargo plane, landed at Melbourne Orlando International Airport on Sunday, June 28, 2026.(Tim Shortt / USA TODAY Network)

People get water during extreme heat in the Washington region, as the Great American State Fair on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., U.S., is temporarily closed due to heat, July 3, 2026.(Cheney Orr, REUTERS)

A woman stands in the spray of water after the 250th Celebrations were postponed due to high temperatures at the The Great American State Fair: The Future of America", part of celebrations marking the upcoming 250th anniversary of the United States, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 3, 2026.(Ken Cedeno, REUTERS)

Visitors watch an air show over the National Mall as part of celebrations marking the upcoming 250th anniversary of the United States at The Great American State Fair in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 3, 2026.(Cheney Orr, REUTERS)

A girl cools off during extreme heat in the Washington region as The Great American State Fair is temporarily closed due to heat on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 3, 2026.(Cheney Orr, REUTERS)

Visitors at the Lincoln Memorial use umbrellas to shield from the sun amid a heatwave in Washington, D.C., on July 1, 2026.(Annabelle Gordon, Reuters)

Leonardo Harold, 18, lies on the floor in front of an air vent to cool off, as aheat wave with high humidityis forecast to bring even higher temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. this week, during The Great American State Fair on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., on June 30, 2026.(Cheney Orr, Reuters)

People try to stay cool during a heat wave in Bryant Park in Manhattan on July 1, 2026 in New York City. New York City has issued an extreme heat warning as temperatures are expected to rise into the high 90s over the next few days, with a heat index over 100 degrees.(Spencer Platt, Getty Images)

Visitors sit in the shade of the Lincoln Memorial and use an umbrella to block sunlight amid a heatwave in Washington, D.C., on July 1, 2026.(Annabelle Gordon, Reuters)

A construction worker takes a water break during a heat wave in Boston, Massachusetts on July 1, 2026. Tens of millions of Americans sweltered under furnace-like temperatures this week as central and eastern cities hunkered down for a heat wave set to last through the July 4 holiday weekend. Dozens of local temperature records could be broken, the National Weather Service (NWS) warned, with temperatures in many places to surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) and high humidity pushing the heat index as high as 115 degrees.(JOSEPH PREZIOSO, AFP via Getty Images)

A dog sits by a water fountain during a heatwave in New York City, on July 1, 2026. Tens of millions of Americans sweltered under furnace-like temperatures this week as central and eastern cities hunkered down for a heat wave set to last through the July 4 holiday weekend. Dozens of local temperature records could be broken, the National Weather Service (NWS) warned, with temperatures in many places to surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) and high humidity pushing the heat index as high as 115 degrees.(KENA BETANCUR, AFP via Getty Images)

People try to stay cool while visiting "The Great American State Fair" during a heatwave in Washington, DC, on July 1, 2026. Tens of millions of Americans sweltered under furnace-like temperatures this week as central and eastern cities hunkered down for a heat wave set to last through the July 4 holiday weekend. Dozens of local temperature records could be broken, the National Weather Service (NWS) warned, with temperatures in many places to surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) and high humidity pushing the heat index as high as 115 degrees.(ALEX WROBLEWSKI, AFP via Getty Images)

A vendor sells water during a heat wave in Manhattan on July 1, 2026 in New York City. New York City has issued an extreme heat warning as temperatures are expected to rise into the high 90s over the next few days, with a heat index over 100 degrees.(Spencer Platt, Getty Images)

People try to stay cool during a heat wave in Manhattan on July 1, 2026 in New York City. New York City has issued an extreme heat warning as temperatures are expected to rise into the high 90s over the next few days, with a heat index over 100 degrees.(Spencer Platt, Getty Images)

People try to stay cool during a heat wave in Manhattan on July 1, 2026 in New York City. New York City has issued an extreme heat warning as temperatures are expected to rise into the high 90s over the next few days, with a heat index over 100 degrees.(Spencer Platt, Getty Images)

Leonardo Harold, 18, lies on the floor in front of an air vent to cool off, as a heat wave with high humidity is forecast to bring even higher temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. this week, during The Great American State Fair on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., on June 30, 2026.(Cheney Orr, Reuters)

A man wipes sweat from his brow as a heat wave with high humidity is forecast to bring even higher temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. this week during The Great American State Fair on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., on June 30, 2026.(Cheney Orr, Reuters)

Paramedic Eli Ungar and Moshe Rosenfeld of Spring Hill EMS treat a patient in an ambulance after he collapsed in the shower during a heat wave in Chestnut Ridge, New York, on July 2, 2026.

The heat approaches 100 degrees Fahrenheit on a residential thermometer in Farmingdale, New Jersey, on July 1, 2026.