Nova studija u PLOS Water istražuje mogućnost da se kombinacijom sevanja oblaka, gustih posmatranja i AI delimično utiče na putanju i intenzitet velikih vremenskih sistema. Autori navode teoretske efekte (npr. Sandy ≈300 milja, Teksas +18°F/≈10°C, Kalifornija −5% padavina), ali kritičari upozoravaju da nema čvrstih dokaza i da etički, pravni i politički rizici ostaju veliki. Istraživanje poziva na dalje eksperimentalne i modelske radove, uz oprez zbog mogućih posledica.
Naučnici Predlažu Kontroverznu Ideju: Može Li Se Tehnologijom Usmeravati Uragane?
Icicles hang off the State Highway 195 sign on Feb. 18, 2021 in Killeen, Texas. Winter storm Uri has brought historic cold weather and power outages to Texas as storms have swept across 26 states with a mix of freezing temperatures and precipitation.
Tehnologija i podaci sve bolje omogućavaju ljudima da razumeju i utiču na vremenske pojave — ali ideja da bi ljudi mogli direktno "gurati" uragane i druge velike sisteme ostaje kontroverzna. Nova studija objavljena 24. juna u časopisu PLOS Water razmatra mogućnosti i ograničenja takvih intervencija, oslanjajući se na postojeće tehnike (npr. sejanje oblaka), napredne mreže posmatranja i modele koji koriste veštačku inteligenciju.
Šta studija tvrdi
Autori sugerišu da bi male, vrlo precizne i vremenski dobro pogođene operacije mogle, teoretski, promeniti putanju ili intenzitet velikih vremenskih sistema. Kao ilustrativne primere navode:
- Hipotetičko pomeranje putanje Superstorma Sandy 2012. za oko 300 milja (≈483 km) da bi se zaobišao Njujork.
- Povećanje najniže temperature tokom teksaške ledene nepogode 2021. za oko 18°F (≈10°C).
- Smanjenje količine padavina iz atmosferskog rečnog sistema 2022. za približno 5%.
Kako bi to funkcionisalo
Po autorima, pristup zahteva tri ključna elementa: vrlo gustu mrežu posmatranja dostupnih u skoro realnom vremenu, modele zasnovane na veštačkoj inteligenciji koji brzo procesuiraju podatke i identifikuju pogodna mesta za "nudging" (blago usmeravanje), i mehanizme isporuke takvog "gurkanja" — među kojima je i velika skala sejanja oblaka.
"Osnovno načelo džiu-džica je postizanje maksimalne efikasnosti uz minimalan napor... manja osoba može uspešno da se odbrani koristeći polugu i momentum" — Upmanu Lall, koautor studije.
Skepticizam i ranija iskustva
Mnogi stručnjaci upozoravaju da ne postoji čvrst naučni dokaz da postojeće metode sevanja oblaka mogu značajno menjati velike, dinamički vođene sisteme poput uragana ili jakih oluja. Katja Friedrich (University of Colorado) u izjavi za USA TODAY navodi da "trenutno NE POSTOJI naučni dokaz" da bi se postojećim tehnologijama mogli modifikovati takvi sistemi.
Ranija istraživanja iz pokušaja slabljenja uragana pomoću sevanja oblaka nisu dala jasne rezultate jer je teško odvojiti uticaj ljudske intervencije od prirodne varijabilnosti sistema. Ipak, autori studije veruju da bi moderna oprema i AI mogli omogućiti bolje eksperimentalne dizajne i merenja.
Tehnička i etička pitanja
Autori priznaju neizvesnost oko same tehnologije za isporuku "gurkanja" i naglašavaju da sejanje oblaka možda nije jedino rešenje. Pritom izriču da su etička, politička i pravna pitanja velika prepreka: presmeravanje oluje da bi se spasilo jedno područje može potencijalno dovesti do većeg rizika za drugo.
Stručnjaci kao Robert Rauber ukazuju da bi političke i međunarodne posledice takvih zahvata bile ogromne, te da to može učiniti implementaciju praktično neizvodljivom čak i da je tehnički izvodivo.
Dezinformacije i javna percepcija
Sejanje oblaka je već meta teorija zavere, naročito posle katastrofa kao što su poplave u Teksasu 2025. i ekstremne padavine u Ujedinjenim Arapskim Emiratima 2024., kada su društvene mreže povezivale prirodne događaje sa navodnim sejanjem. Meteorolozi i zvaničnici su u tim slučajevima naveli da nema dokaza da je sejanje uzrokovalo katastrofe i da ono može samo umereno uticati na padavine.
Zaključak
Studija otvara važno naučno pitanje: da li, i u kojoj meri, ljudska tehnologija može pouzdano i etički delovati na velike atmosferske sisteme. Dok autori predlažu da se istraživanje nastavi uz pomoć naprednih podataka i AI, većina stručnjaka poziva na oprez — posebno zbog tehničke neizvesnosti i ozbiljnih etičkih, pravnih i geopolitičkih rizika.
Izvori: PLOS Water (studija objavljena 24. juna), izjave za USA TODAY, Government Accountability Office (GAO), NOAA, primeri iz izveštaja CBS i AFP.
A haboob comes into Chandler, Ariz. on Aug. 25, 2025.(Patrick Breen/The Republic)
An evening lightning storm lights up the skies near the Sanibel Causeway in Southwest Florida on Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025.(Andrew West, The News-Press via USA Today Network)
Lightning strikes over downtown Phoenix during a monsoon storm on Aug. 13, 2025.(Michael Chow, The Republic via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Clouds and sunset in Sarasota, Florida, on Aug. 6, 2025.(Mike Lang, Sarasota Herald-Tribune via USA TODAY Network)
Lightning strikes over the Dragon Bravo Fire burning on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon on July 15, 2025.(Michael Chow, The Republic via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Hikers reach the summit of Piestewa Peak during sunrise as record-breaking heat of 118 degrees is predicted in Phoenix on July 9, 2025. Phoenix is the fifth-largest city in the United States and the hottest metropolis.(Rob Schumacher, The Republic via USA TODAY NETWORK)
The shoreline reflects a lightning bolt as an afternoon thunderstorm moves over Daytona Beach. The National Lightning Safety Council encourages people to head indoors after hearing the first clap of thunder.(Nigel Cook, USA TODAY NETWORK)
Lightning illuminates the skies over Pine Island, Florida on Wednesday, June 25, 2025. Recent storms have moved in bringing with them rain and lightning. Photographed from the Sanibel Causeway from a distance.(Andrew West, The News-Press/USA Today Network)
There were storms over the ocean over Memorial Day weekend. On Saturday night, May 24, 2025, eerie blue lights could be seen near the shore in Cocoa Beach with lightning lighting the sky behind them. The blue glows turned out to be lights on the mast of a sailboat anchored just offshore, maybe to avoid the storms.(MALCOLM DENEMARK, FLORIDA TODAY via USA TODAY NETWORK)
NHRA top fuel drivers Clay Millican (left) and Tony Stewart race as a dust storm approaches the track during qualifying for the Route 66 Nationals at Route 66 Raceway in Joliet, Il. On May 16, 2025.(Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images)
Lightning moves across the sky over the McKenzie River near Hayden Bridge in Springfield, Ore. Tuesday, July 16, 2024.(Chris Pietsch, The Register-Guard via USA TODAY NETWORK)
The sun rises behind a surfer at JP Luby Beach on Saturday, July 6, 2024, in Corpus Christi, Texas. The national weather service has issued a hurricane watch for the Coastal Bend as Tropical Storm Beryl travels across the Gulf.(Angela Piazza, Caller-Times via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Lightning strikes behind Papago Park in Phoenix during a monsoon thunderstorm on Aug. 8, 2024.(Michael Chow, The Republic via USA TODAY NETWORK)
A dust storm moves across the East Valley in Phoenix as a monsoon storm approaches on Aug. 22, 2024.(Michael Chow, The Republic via USA TODAY NETWORK)
The sun rises over the destroyed Fort Myers Beach pier as Hurricane Milton approaches Florida on Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. The town is empty as most residents have evacuated.(Andrew West, The News-Press via USA Today Network)
A double rainbow appears over Reno, Nev. on Feb. 4, 2025.(Jason Bean, RGJ via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Michael Hagerty is silhouetted as the sun begins to break through the clouds over West Dennis Beach, Mass. Monday morning, Feb. 10, 2025. Hagerty is from Portsmouth, New Hampshire, and West Dennis and was out on the beach cross country skiing on the crunchy snow.(Merrily Cassidy, Cape Cod Times via USA TODAY NETWORK)
High winds blow massive amounts of dirt and sand through the windmills where the Whitewater River flows when there is rain just west of Indian Canyon Dr. in Palm Springs, Calif., Feb. 11, 2025.(Jay Calderon, The Desert Sun via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Sunset blazes over downtown Des Moines, Iowa on Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024.(Zach Boyden-Holmes, The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Olympic athletes train on the Charles River the evening before the start of the Head of the Charles Regatta rowing event, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024.(David Sokol, Wicked Local / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Pablo Rodriguez of Sleepy Hollow and his children Justin. 13, and Mateo, 7, fish under storm clouds at the Tarrytown, N.Y. waterfront Aug. 6, 2024. With heavy rains forecasted for overnight and into tomorrow, the National Weather Service has issued a flood warning for the Lower Hudson Valley from 2 p.m. Tuesday to noon Wednesday.(Seth Harrison, The Journal News/USA TODAY Network)
Lightning strikes behind a RNC 2024 Milwaukee flag display on the opening day of the Republican National Convention on Monday July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wis.(Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
Waves crash against the lighthouse at the entrance to the harbour during Storm Nelson, in Les Sables-d'Olonne, western France, on March 28, 2024.(LOIC VENANCE, AFP via Getty Images)
Lightning strikes in front of the Superstition Mountains as a storm approaches the East Valley on March 18, 2024.(Michael Chow, The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Water rushes over the Paterson Great Falls National Historical Park in Paterson, NJ on Friday Dec. 22, 2023. Mist from the falls created hazardous ice conditions and an opportunity for people to take photos.(Tariq Zehawi, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK)
The landmark Kuwait Towers and other skyscrapers pierce through the cloud cover over Kuwait City on December 10, 2023.(YASSER AL-ZAYYAT, AFP via Getty Images)
Lightning illuminates the skies over Tempe as seen from an apartment complex on Broadway Road on Aug. 31, 2023.(Alex Gould, The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Beachgoers check out the surf as Hurricane Idalia approaches Florida at Times Square on Fort Myers Beach on Tuesday, Aug. 29, 2023.(Andrew West/The News-Press)
Heat lightning in the clouds rolling in over the Banana River and the Thousand Islands in Cocoa Beach, Fla. after dusk are captured in this 30 second exposure on Aug. 14, 2023.(MALCOLM DENEMARK, FLORIDA TODAY / USA TODAY NETWORK)
The first dust storm of the monsoon season rolls over Camelback Mountain in Paradise Valley on July 17, 2023. Monday was the 18th day in a row of temperatures 110 degrees or more which tied the record from 1974.(Rob Schumacher, The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Football fans evacuate Kinnick Stadium as a bolt of lightning flashes overhead during a weather delay in the third quarter of Iowa's non-conference NCAA football game against Nevada on Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, in Iowa City, Iowa.(Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Lightning strikes as rain falls.(Michael Chow, The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Lightning strikes behind Camelback Mountain as rain falls during a monsoon storm on July 16, 2022.(Michael Chow, The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Lightning from a monsoon thunderstorm illuminates the sky behind the Phoenix Sky Harbor control tower on June 29, 2022.(Michael Chow, The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Bands of rain fall over the McDowell Mountains in Scottsdale during a monsoon storm on June 26, 2022.(Michael Chow, The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK)
Colder temperatures created ice pancakes on Lake Ontario in Rochester, N.Y. on Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022. The Charlotte Pier was also ice covered, retaining the form of the waves that crashed over the pier.(Tina MacIntyre-Yee, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle/USA TODAY Network)
An aerial view shows a snow covered landscape on a sunny winter day of Jan. 6, 2022, near Winterberg, western Germany.(INA FASSBENDER, AFP via Getty Images)
Monday evening thunder storms moving in from the west brought an incredible lightning show to the Space Coast. A single 20 second exposure captured numerous bolts over the Thousand Islands in Cocoa Beach, Fla.(MALCOLM DENEMARK, FLORIDA TODAY / USA TODAY NETWORK)
A bolt of lightning crosses the sky as people look at buildings displaying a light show on the eve of the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing on June 30, 2021.(NOEL CELIS, AFP via Getty Images)
Lightning breaks through the clouds over agricultural fields in South Oxnard, Calif. late Monday, October 4, 2021 as an hours-long storm swept through Ventura County.(ANTHONY PLASCENCIA, Ventura County Star/USA TODAY Network)
Lightning sparks in the sky atop of the of the empty Beira Rio stadium in Porto Alegre, Brazil, before the start of the closed-door Copa Libertadores football match between Brazil's Internacional and Argentina's Boca Juniors on December 2, 2020.(SILVIO AVILA, POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
The skies over the west side were ablaze in color looking down Ontario Avenue, Sunday, Aug. 9, 2020, following rains in Sheboygan, Wis.(Gary C. Klein, USA TODAY NETWORK)
A view of ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex during a lightning storm following a game between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks at The Field House on Aug. 10, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.(Mike Ehrmann, Getty Images)
Maximilian Krauss of SpVgg Unterhaching controls the ball while a massive shelf cloud rolls in during the 3. Liga match between SpVgg Unterhaching and FC Carl Zeiss Jena at Alpenbauer Sportpark on July 01, 2020 in Unterhaching, Germany.(Adam Pretty, Bongarts/Getty Images)
Overall view of a shelf cloud with a lightning bolt from a tornado warned supercell thunderstorm on May 19, 2020 in Ulysses, Ks.(Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY NETWORK)
Lightning crackles across the sky above a windmill along the railroad tracks in Merkel, Texas Thursday May 21, 2020. More storms are predicted for Memorial Day weekend, and later into the week beyond.(Ronald W. Erdrich, Abilene Reporter-News-USA TODAY NETWORK)
Lightning strikes behind the chapel of Panagia Gorgona in the village of Skala Sykamias, north of Lesbos, on Feb. 27, 2020.(ARIS MESSINIS, AFP via Getty Images)
Lghtening strikes on a building during a thunderstorm in Bangkok on Oct. 27, 2019.(MLADEN ANTONOV, AFP via Getty Images)
Lightning strikes over Tempe Town Lake, Tempe, Ariz. during a storm on Aug. 28, 2019.(Michael Chow, The Arizona Republic)
Storm clouds are illuminated by the setting sun as lightning strikes near Maricopa, Ariz. on Aug. 28, 2019.(Michael Chow, The Arizona Republic)
Lightnings flash over the Saint-Michel Basilica during a storm in Bordeaux, southwestern France, on July 6, 2019. ((Nicholas Tucat, AFP/Getty Images)
Snow covers the saguro cacti and palm trees near Carefree, Ariz. Feb. 21, 2019.(Rob Schumacher/USA Today Network via The Republic)
A dust storm moves towards Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe on Aug. 9, 2016.(David Wallace/The Republic)
Lightning streaks across the desert sky over the McDowell Mountains near Scottsdale, Ariz. during a monsoon storm on July 15, 2017.(Rob Schumacher, The Arizona Republic)
Families and volunteers such for family papers and valuables among the debris in Beauregard, Ala., following a deadly tornado, March 7, 2019.(MICKEY WELSH, The Advertiser via USA TODAY Network)
Massive Hurricane Sandy churns off the East Coast on Oct. 29, 2012, in the Atlantic Ocean.
A drone view shows flooded houses, following torrential rains that unleashed flash floods along the Concho River in San Angelo, Texas, U.S., July 4, 2025, in this screen grab obtained from a social media video. Correction: An earlier version of this caption misidentified the river that caused the flooding.
Pomozite nam da budemo bolji.
